February 2024 Jacksonville Market Summary

February is a transitional month in real estate, capping the end of the traditionally slow winter season, while at the same time ushering in the start of the Spring home buying season – the time of year in which the most homes are sold. While a majority of those Spring sales take place at the height of the season between April and July, February can serve as an excellent indicator for the overall direction of the market in the year to come. 

So how did Jacksonville’s market perform in February, and what does it mean for the remainder of 2024? Here’s the breakdown. 

Sales volume is down

According to data provided by the Northeast Florida Multiple Listing System or NEFMLS, there were 2036 total sales in February 2024, a 6.2% decrease from February 2023. Combined with a slow January, sales are down 7% seasonally adjusted year to date or YTD. 

The greatest decrease in sales volume occurred in homes priced between $120,000 and $300,000 – in which sales volumes fell by as much as 40% year over year or YOY, depending on price bracket. While some of the reduction can be attributed to higher home values, it’s worth noting that active listings between $300,000 – $400,000 fell by 7.3% in February YOY. 

 

Sharp decline in pending listings

The number of homes pending under contract in February fell by 19.4% year over year.  A pending sale doesn’t guarantee a closing, as many sales fall through. However, due to the nature of the multi-month sales cycle, pending home volumes are often a good indicator of future market health.

Fewer pending homes in February may result in fewer sales and stagnant months in March and April. 

Homes are selling faster

While the average number of days on market rose from 80 in January 2024 to 85 in February 2024, it’s still a marked 9.6% decrease from the average of 94 days in February 2023. 

It’s a far cry from the speed and ease at which homes were selling during the height of the COVID pandemic in 2021, and sellers should expect a significantly longer selling cycle, nearly three months from listing to closing. But the year over year decrease is a positive signal that homes are drawing buyers attention more quickly than before. 

Home prices are still climbing

The average list price reached $523,910 in February 2024, a 6.64% increase year over year. By comparison, the average sales price increased 9.44% year over year to $443,224. 

Despite a lower sales volume and fewer buyers, home values have continued to grow significantly between 2023 and 2024, with values showing resilient growth even in the winter season. 

Additionally, the gap between selling price and listing price has narrowed with homes selling for an average 94.7% of list price in February 2024, up from 93.9% of list price in January. This indicates more competition between buyers, and less enticement for sellers to accept below market offers. 

 

The Sweet Spot

Ultimately, there’s never a crystal ball when it comes to the market. Unforeseen circumstances and world events can entirely upset the balance, as was seen in early 2020 with the onset of COVID. Effects of which are still being felt today. 

As 2024 marks an election cycle year, some market turbulence is expected. However, despite this, and setbacks with interest rates and the feds timeline for rate cuts, it seems likely that home values will continue to climb in Jacksonville. Combined with the many initiatives to revitalize city centers, and the slew of Americans relocating to Jacksonville, we expect a healthy market in 2024, making it a fairly neutral time to buy or sell. 

Investors should keep close tabs on the Fed’s direction with rates. Rate cuts are likely to bring an influx of new buyers while continued rate increases or delays in rate cuts will likely thin the buyer pool further, and could add strain to the market as a whole.

The views offered in this article are opinions and may not reflect the views or opinions of Wholesale Realty and its employees. This information is for entertainment only, and is not to be construed as real estate advice. Always discuss your options with a licensed real estate agent or a licensed real estate attorney.