Posted on May 24, 2024 by wholesalejax in Blog
Jacksonville Market Summary April 2024
With spring in full swing and summer just around the corner, it’s real estate season. The months between April and July are typically the busiest and most competitive for the market, and Jacksonville is no different.
So how is the season shaping up? The results from April are mixed, with 2024 being slightly more muted than anticipated, but there are still some positive indicators on the horizon.
Listing Volume is Way Up..Kinda
The number of active listings has risen steeply in 2024. Typically an indicator of a slower market, the additional available inventory will reduce competition between buyers, reducing bidding wars, and potentially tempering the meteoric price rises that have occurred in the past 12 months.
In April 2024, there were 9393 active listings on the NEFAR MLS which services the Jacksonville Metro. This is a 24.7% year over year increase when compared to the 7534 active listings in April 2023. A staggering increase given the mere 4661 active listings in April 2022. But it’s important to note that this number isn’t abnormal.
In fact, it’s quite the opposite. In the pre-pandemic period from April 2015 – 2020 the average number of active listings for any given April was just over 10,000. Even now it can be argued that Jacksonville is facing an inventory shortage, especially when considering its explosive population gain of the last decade.
April active listings from 2015 -2024. Courtesy of NEFMLS.
Houses are Still Selling Quickly
The average cumulative number of days a house spends on the market, often abbreviated CDOM is a strong indicator of market health. In April 2024 the CDOM for the Jacksonville Metro was 63, meaning it took just over two months for the average home to fully close from the time of listing.
With the memory of the buying frenzy that was the COVID-19 pandemic still fresh in many minds, it may surprise you to learn that this is a 23.2% decrease from 2023, when the CDOM averaged 82 for the Jacksonville Metro.
In fact, 63 days is historically low, with homes taking as many as 100 days to fully close in April 2015. Home sellers in Jacksonville shouldn’t expect to find a buyer overnight, but a few months timeline is a reasonable expectation when selling.
Prices are High
The average reported sales price for listed home in the Northeast Florida market was $469,361 in April 2024. A staggering 10.52% year over year increase from April 2023. Overall, home values have risen nationally, with April marking ten consecutive months of growth, and 2024 boasting the highest overall April value ever reported.
Homes are also selling for a high percentage of their listing price on the open market. In April 2024 the average sold to list ratio was 95.2%. For reference, in April 2015 which was considered an average year for real estate, the sold to list ratio was under 94%.
Sales Volume is Flat
April and May are typically red hot months for real estate transactions, but the results for 2024 have been muted. There were 2649 sales in Northeast Florida in April. A negligible decline from the 2692 in March, but a 0.6% increase year over year from 2023.
Buyer activity is still low due to rising costs spurred by inflation and stubborn interest rates. With the average mortgage rate just dipping below 7% for the first time in months in late May 2024, even entry level homes have become a strain on many budgets.
Initially it was believed that the Fed would initiate roughly six rate cuts in 2024. However, sticky inflation reports have revised that number down to 1, which is expected in late 2024. Most likely in December during the final annual meeting. As a result, mortgage rates may stay elevated, continuing the downward pressure on buyers and sellers alike.
With more inventory, it’s becoming more difficult, though far from impossible, for homes to stand out and entice bidding wars as was the case during the past few years. Expect prices to cool as a result.
Renovated homes have a better chance of selling than as-is homes.
Takeaways for the Jacksonville Market
Listing volume is higher than it has been for the past few years, but remains at a healthy level. Prices are rising rapidly, and home sales are steady, but not increasing. Is it a good time to buy or sell in Jacksonville? It all depends on your circumstances.
There are still plenty of buyers looking for homes. Many times the decision to buy is as much about life circumstances as it is about finances, and as a result we don’t expect sales to slow significantly, even with the increased inventory.
Homes with desirable features, upgrades, and recent renovations will typically sell faster, and with a higher chance of success than those needing significant work, as cash savings are falling at an alarming level. As-is sales are more difficult than they’ve been in recent years.
If you are investing, lower-priced inventory is scarce, and there are many buyers looking to get into entry-level homes. There’s still money to be made in the fix-and-flip and rental models, though rents have remained stagnant throughout the year.
Ultimately, the decision to buy or sell should be made with careful consideration. Contact a licensed professional to discuss your options.